Intelligence. The world’s second oldest profession.
The pursuit and use of intelligence plays a pivotal role throughout human history. From the Pharaohs and Sun Tzu, to Alan Turing and Oleg Gordievsky, the value of information and insights gained from secret sources and methods is impossible to calculate but hard to overstate. And we have become all-too-familiar with the consequences when intelligence lets us down, from Pearl Harbor to the Iraq War.
In this era we have witnessed a profound shift in the intelligence landscape, in response to global events but also from the effects of our fast-changing information environment. In Ukraine, for example, secret intelligence obtained by traditional means revealed Russia’s intentions well in advance of the invasion. But even armed with this intelligence, and despite earnest diplomatic efforts, Russia could not be deterred. However, through the deliberate declassification and dissemination of secret intelligence, Russia’s cynical aggression was laid bare, and her ‘casus belli’ shown to be entirely fabricated, giving Ukraine and her allies a strategic advantage.
This is far from the only innovation in Ukraine. Even more significant in terms of the conduct of the war has been the use of cheap, attritable devices (especially drones), and the effective use of intelligence, from Top Secret to Open Source. And this latter category has now firmly established itself as a critical part of the intelligence architecture, in some cases equal in importance to the exquisite sources and methods of the clandestine services, and rapidly surpassing them in some settings and circumstances.
In response, the intelligence community (IC) is adapting and responding. In early March, Avril Haines and Bill Burns, US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and Director CIA (D/CIA) respectively, jointly put their names to a pan-IC strategy for open source intelligence (OSINT). Burns wrote not as ‘Director CIA’, but under the title ‘OSINT Functional Manager’, noting that “OSINT informs the decisions of senior policymakers on nearly every major issue facing the United States” - a clear acknowledgement of the CIA’s embrace of open source as well as traditional clandestine source intelligence.
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/IC_OSINT_Strategy.pdf
Professor Lucy Mason, founder of the UK Defence and Security Accelerator (DASA), in a recent CETAS paper co-authored with a member of the UK Intelligence Community (UKIC), noted that:
“The UKIC is facing an existential challenge. It is being out-competed by providers of open-source intelligence and data companies.”
She is correct, but this is no reason to be downhearted.
Allied intelligence agencies in open societies are fortunate to have an array of cutting-edge technology companies whose products and services can and will support their missions, augmenting secret sources and expanding the range and quality of the intelligence available to decision-makers. As I’ve written before, this affords a structural advantage over authoritarian states and closed societies, whose defence and security apparatus relies on in-house capabilities and unreliable, sometimes criminal schemes. These might work up to a point, but they really don’t scale, and we should take great confidence from the technology communities which innovate and thrive in so many allied nations.
Having worked in the national security community for much of my career, I know the value of secret and open source intelligence, and I am determined to work with organisations who contribute significantly to our collective security. Where commercial organisations, like Recorded Future, can deliver intelligence at a scale, pace, and in a form which the agencies cannot equal, they should do so, freeing up resources in the clandestine services to do what only they can. Our adversaries will always be afraid of the light, and we should exploit our advantage ruthlessly, pursuing security through intelligence.
I believe that Recorded Future is the Intelligence Agency for the 21st Century, and I am excited to join the team.
April 8, 2024
I love this blog because it highlights what so many of us are passionate about--decision advantage over our adversaries. In an age when our enemies strive to divide us, we must band together. I am honored to be a part of this mission during such a pivotal time in the intelligence community and geopolitics!
I joined Recorded Future for similar reasons - recognizing that open-source intelligence is crucial to combatting challenges both today and in the future. Excited to have you join Recorded Future!